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<p><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Georgia, Palatino, serif; font-size: 18px; background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);">Today, climate change affects all living things on earth. It also leads to serious losses in terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human welfare. In this context, </span><i style="box-sizing: inherit; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Georgia, Palatino, serif; font-size: 18px; background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);">Laurus nobilis</i><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Georgia, Palatino, serif; font-size: 18px; background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);"> L. is a very important species for Turkey, and the Mediterranean countries. This research aimed to simulate the current distribution of the suitable habitat for </span><i style="box-sizing: inherit; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Georgia, Palatino, serif; font-size: 18px; background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);">L. nobilis</i><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Georgia, Palatino, serif; font-size: 18px; background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);"> in Turkey and to predict its possible range shifts in future climate scenarios. To predict the geographical distribution of </span><i style="box-sizing: inherit; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Georgia, Palatino, serif; font-size: 18px; background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);">L. nobilis</i><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Georgia, Palatino, serif; font-size: 18px; background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);">, the study used the maximum-entropy algorithm-based MaxEnt 3.4.1 with seven bioclimatic variables created using the Community Climate System Model 4.0 (CCSM4) and the prediction models RCP4.5–8.5 for the years 2050–2070. The results indicated that the most important bioclimatic variables that shape the distribution of </span><i style="box-sizing: inherit; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Georgia, Palatino, serif; font-size: 18px; background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);">L. nobilis</i><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Georgia, Palatino, serif; font-size: 18px; background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);"> are BIO11-mean temperature of coldest quarter, and BIO7-annual temperature range. Two climate change scenarios predicted that the geographical distribution of </span><i style="box-sizing: inherit; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Georgia, Palatino, serif; font-size: 18px; background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);">L. nobilis</i><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Georgia, Palatino, serif; font-size: 18px; background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);"> would increase slightly and then decrease in the future. However, the spatial change analysis showed that the general geographical distribution area of </span><i style="box-sizing: inherit; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Georgia, Palatino, serif; font-size: 18px; background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);">L. nobilis</i><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Georgia, Palatino, serif; font-size: 18px; background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);"> did not change significantly, but the “moderate,” “high,” and “very high” suitable habitats changed towards “low” suitable habitats. These changes were particularly effective in Turkey’s Mediterranean region, which shows that climate change is instrumental in determining the future of the Mediterranean ecosystem. Therefore, suitability mapping and change analysis of potential future bioclimatic habitats can help in planning for land use, conservation, and ecological restoration of </span><i style="box-sizing: inherit; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Georgia, Palatino, serif; font-size: 18px; background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);">L. nobilis.</i><br></p> |
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