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Burden of disease scenarios by state in the USA, 2022–50: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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dc.creator Stafford, Lauryn K
dc.creator Grover, Ashna
dc.creator Cruz-Martins, Natalia
dc.creator Malasala, Satyaveni
dc.creator Szarpak, Lukasz
dc.creator Szeto, Mindy D
dc.creator Dai, Xiaochen
dc.creator Dai, Zhaoli
dc.creator Murray, Christopher J L
dc.creator Tabatabaei, Seyyed Mohammad
dc.creator Vollset, Stein Emil
dc.creator Soliman, Sameh S M
dc.creator Goldust, Mohamad
dc.creator Göbölös, Laszlo
dc.creator Gillum, Richard F
dc.creator Ghozy, Sherief
dc.creator Ghotbi, Elena
dc.creator Solanki, Shipra
dc.creator Tabche, Celine
dc.creator Guha, Avirup
dc.creator Guicciardi, Stefano
dc.creator Gupta, Rahul
dc.creator Gupta, Rajat Das
dc.creator Zyoud, Sa'ed H
dc.creator Habibzadeh, Parham
dc.creator Tadakamadla, Jyothi
dc.creator Taiba, Jabeen
dc.creator Sharma, Manoj
dc.creator Swain, Chandan Kumar
dc.creator Cortese, Samuele
dc.creator Criqui, Michael H
dc.creator Gouravani, Mahdi
dc.creator Golechha, Mahaveer
dc.creator Le, Thao Thi Thu
dc.creator Le, Nhi Huu Hanh
dc.creator Makram, Omar M
dc.creator Sulaiman, Sahabi K
dc.creator Sun, Jing
dc.creator Malakan Rad, Elaheh
dc.creator Straif, Kurt
dc.creator Le, Huu-Hoai
dc.creator Stanaway, Jeffrey D
dc.creator Grada, Ayman
dc.creator Martinez-Piedra, Ramon
dc.creator Dziedzic, Arkadiusz Marian
dc.creator Khanmohammadi, Shaghayegh
dc.creator Sharifan, Amin
dc.creator Chong, Bryan
dc.creator Sharew, Nigussie Tadesse
dc.creator Marzo, Roy Rillera
dc.creator Mathangasinghe, Yasith
dc.creator Khan, Mohammad Jobair
dc.creator Khan, Fayaz
dc.creator Nduaguba, Sabina Onyinye
dc.creator Cho, Daniel Youngwhan
dc.creator Mathur, Medha
dc.creator Khan, Ajmal
dc.creator Matozinhos, Fernanda Penido
dc.creator Mayeli, Mahsa
dc.creator McPhail, Steven M
dc.creator Mediratta, Rishi P
dc.creator Mekene Meto, Tesfahun
dc.creator Sharath, Medha
dc.creator E'mar, Abdel Rahman
dc.creator Shamim, Muhammad Aaqib
dc.creator Haq, Zaim Anan
dc.creator Meles, Hadush Negash
dc.creator Shaikh, Masood Ali
dc.creator Shahsavari, Hamid R.
dc.creator Shahbandi, Ataollah
dc.creator Hasaballah, Ahmed I
dc.creator Hasan, Ikramul
dc.creator Hasan, Md. Kamrul
dc.creator Khamesipour, Faham
dc.creator Ebrahimi, Alireza
dc.creator Ehrlich, Joshua R R
dc.creator Kempen, John H
dc.creator Kazemian, Sina
dc.creator Kazemi, Foad
dc.creator Katamreddy, Adarsh
dc.creator Karaye, Ibraheem M
dc.creator Kantar, Rami S
dc.creator Shafie, Mahan
dc.creator Seylani, Allen
dc.creator Selvaraj, Siddharthan
dc.creator Ekundayo, Temitope Cyrus
dc.creator Schwebel, David C
dc.creator Schumacher, Austin E
dc.creator El Bayoumy, Ibrahim Farahat
dc.creator Kanmodi, Kehinde Kazeem
dc.creator Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal
dc.creator Mokdad, Ali H
dc.creator Bisignano, Catherine
dc.creator Rashid, Ahmed Mustafa
dc.creator Ching, Patrick R
dc.creator Chi, Gerald
dc.creator Chen, Guangjin
dc.creator Hsu, Johnathan M
dc.creator Chen, An-Tian
dc.creator Bryazka, Dana
dc.creator Kamireddy, Arun
dc.creator Nguyen, Duc Hoang
dc.creator Nguyen, Phat Tuan
dc.creator Cao, Shujin
dc.creator Nguyen, QuynhAnh P
dc.creator Kamarajah, Sivesh Kathir
dc.creator Bhattacharjee, Natalia V
dc.creator Dalton, Bronte E
dc.creator Lindstedt, Paulina A
dc.creator Smith, Amanda E
dc.creator Ababneh, Hazim S
dc.creator Abbasgholizadeh, Rouzbeh
dc.creator Abdelkader, Atef
dc.creator Abdi, Parsa
dc.creator Abiodun, Olugbenga Olusola
dc.creator Temsah, Mohamad-Hani
dc.creator Aboagye, Richard Gyan
dc.creator Abukhadijah, Hana J
dc.creator Abu-Zaid, Ahmed
dc.creator Gholamrezanezhad, Ali
dc.creator Acuna, Juan Manuel
dc.creator Addo, Isaac Yeboah
dc.creator Nguyen, Van Thanh
dc.creator Kalani, Rizwan
dc.creator Adekanmbi, Victor
dc.creator Adeyeoluwa, Temitayo Esther
dc.creator Adzigbli, Leticia Akua
dc.creator Afolabi, Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika
dc.creator Afrashteh, Fatemeh
dc.creator Agyemang-Duah, Williams
dc.creator Ahmad, Shahzaib
dc.creator Ahmadzade, Mohadese
dc.creator Ahmed, Ali
dc.creator Ahmed, Ayman
dc.creator Ahmed, Syed Anees
dc.creator Akkaif, Mohammed Ahmed
dc.creator Akkala, Sreelatha
dc.creator Conde, Joao
dc.creator Jeswani, Bijay Mukesh
dc.creator Melese, Endalkachew Belayneh
dc.creator Meo, Sultan Ayoub
dc.creator Mestrovic, Tomislav
dc.creator Akrami, Ashley E
dc.creator Al Awaidy, Salah
dc.creator Al Hasan, Syed Mahfuz
dc.creator Al Ta'ani, Omar
dc.creator Al Zaabi, Omar Ali Mohammed
dc.creator Alahdab, Fares
dc.creator Al-Ajlouni, Yazan
dc.creator Ramazanu, Sheena
dc.creator Gholami, Ehsan
dc.creator Ramasamy, Shakthi Kumaran
dc.creator Javaheri, Tahereh
dc.creator Al-Aly, Ziyad
dc.creator Alam, Manjurul
dc.creator Aldhaleei, Wafa A
dc.creator Algammal, Abdelazeem M
dc.creator Chaudhary, Anis Ahmad
dc.creator Alhassan, Robert Kaba
dc.creator Chattu, Vijay Kumar
dc.creator Ali, Mohammed Usman
dc.creator Ali, Rafat
dc.creator Ray, Ayita
dc.creator Ali, Waad
dc.creator Al-Ibraheem, Akram
dc.creator Almustanyir, Sami
dc.creator Alqahatni, Saleh A
dc.creator Reddy, Murali Mohan Rama Krishna
dc.creator Redwan, Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed
dc.creator Teramoto, Masayuki
dc.creator Elhadi, Muhammed
dc.creator Elhadi, Yasir Ahmed Mohammed
dc.creator Eltaha, Chadi
dc.creator Nandu, Kannothu Thazha Kuni
dc.creator Nanavaty, Dhairya P
dc.creator Etaee, Farshid
dc.creator Najafi, Mohammad Sadeq
dc.creator Ezenwankwo, Elochukwu Fortune
dc.creator Naik, Gurudatta
dc.creator Naghavi, Pirouz
dc.creator Jamil, Safayet
dc.creator Nikravangolsefid, Nasrin
dc.creator Rhee, Taeho Gregory
dc.creator Jalilzadeh Yengejeh, Reza
dc.creator Fadaka, Adewale Oluwaseun
dc.creator Fagbule, Omotayo Francis
dc.creator Alrawashdeh, Ahmad
dc.creator Fahim, Ayesha
dc.creator Rodriguez, Jefferson Antonio Buendia
dc.creator Fallahpour, Mahshid
dc.creator Al-Rifai, Rami H.
dc.creator Wei, Melissa Y
dc.creator Weerakoon, Kosala Gayan
dc.creator Alsabri, Mohammed A
dc.creator Vinayak, Manish
dc.creator Chan, Jeffrey Shi Kai
dc.creator Alshahrani, Najim Z.
dc.creator Cerin, Ester
dc.creator Hasan, S. M. Mahmudul
dc.creator Hasani, Hamidreza
dc.creator Hasnain, Md Saquib
dc.creator Metanat, Pouya
dc.creator Cenko, Edina
dc.creator Cembranel, Francieli
dc.creator Castaldelli-Maia, Joao Mauricio
dc.creator Capodici, Angelo
dc.creator Caetano dos Santos, Florentino Luciano
dc.creator Butt, Zahid A
dc.creator Bustanji, Yasser
dc.creator Bugiardini, Raffaele
dc.creator Brauer, Michael
dc.creator Braithwaite, Dejana
dc.creator Boyko, Edward J
dc.creator Boxe, Christopher
dc.creator Niranjan, Vikram
dc.creator Bodunrin, Aadam Olalekan
dc.creator Bhuyan, Soumitra S
dc.creator Havmoeller, Rasmus J
dc.creator Hay, Simon I
dc.creator Bhat, Vivek
dc.creator He, Jiawei
dc.creator Bhaskar, Sonu
dc.creator Hebert, Jeffrey J
dc.creator Hemmati, Mehdi
dc.creator Bhargava, Ashish
dc.creator Rojas-Rueda, David
dc.creator Mhlanga, Laurette
dc.creator Michalek, Irmina Maria
dc.creator Miller, Ted R
dc.creator Bharadwaj, Ravi
dc.creator Bhala, Neeraj
dc.creator Lee, Munjae
dc.creator Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth
dc.creator Schuermans, Art
dc.creator Al-Tawfiq, Jaffar A
dc.creator Al-Wardat, Mohammad
dc.creator Beyene, Kebede A
dc.creator Hiraike, Yuta
dc.creator Mini, G.K.
dc.creator Hoan, Nguyen Quoc
dc.creator Horita, Nobuyuki
dc.creator Aly, Hany
dc.creator Bernstein, Robert S
dc.creator Gebrehiwot, Mesfin
dc.creator Noor, Syed Toukir Ahmed
dc.creator Nugen, Fred
dc.creator Nutor, Jerry John
dc.creator Bermudez, Amiel Nazer C
dc.creator Benzian, Habib
dc.creator Columbus, Alyssa
dc.creator Amindarolzarbi, Alireza
dc.creator Amiri, Sohrab
dc.creator Anil, Abhishek
dc.creator Anyasodor, Anayochukwu Edward
dc.creator Arabloo, Jalal
dc.creator Arafat, Mosab
dc.creator Aravkin, Aleksandr Y
dc.creator Ardekani, Ali
dc.creator Areda, Demelash
dc.creator Gebregergis, Miglas Welay
dc.creator Gao, Xiang
dc.creator Mirarefin, Mojde
dc.creator Van den Eynde, Jef
dc.creator Asghariahmadabad, Mona
dc.creator Fazylov, Timur
dc.creator Moberg, Madeline E
dc.creator Ganiyani, Mohammad Arfat
dc.creator Ayanore, Martin Amogre
dc.creator Liu, Xuefeng
dc.creator Ayyoubzadeh, Seyed Mohammad
dc.creator Azadnajafabad, Sina
dc.creator Azhar, Gulrez Shah
dc.creator Aziz, Shahkaar
dc.creator Ganesan, Balasankar
dc.creator Mohamed, Jama
dc.creator Mohamed, Nouh Saad
dc.creator Mohammad, Ameen Mosa
dc.creator Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah
dc.creator Ramadan, Majed
dc.creator Azzam, Ahmed Y.
dc.creator Babu, Giridhara Rathnaiah
dc.creator Rahmanian, Mohammad
dc.creator Rahman, Muhammad Aziz
dc.creator Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa
dc.creator Rahim, Md Jillur
dc.creator Raggi, Catalina
dc.creator Rafferty, Quinn
dc.creator Puvvula, Jagadeesh
dc.creator Gadanya, Muktar A
dc.creator Schlaich, Markus P
dc.creator Sawhney, Monika
dc.creator Satpathy, Maheswar
dc.creator Saravi, Babak
dc.creator Saravanan, Aswini
dc.creator Nafei, Ayoub
dc.creator Fischer, Florian
dc.creator Baghdadi, Soroush
dc.creator Nzoputam, Ogochukwu Janet
dc.creator Mustafa, Ahmad
dc.creator Murillo-Zamora, Efren
dc.creator Jakovljevic, Mihajlo
dc.creator Mohammadzadeh, Ibrahim
dc.creator Thirunavukkarasu, Sathish
dc.creator Mohammed, Shafiu
dc.creator Ferreira, Nuno
dc.creator Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto
dc.creator Tram, Khai Hoan
dc.creator Rout, Himanshu Sekhar
dc.creator Tran, Jasmine T
dc.creator Oancea, Bogdan
dc.creator Jaka, Sanobar
dc.creator Fekadu, Ginenus
dc.creator Bahreini, Razieh
dc.creator Jairoun, Ammar Abdulrahman
dc.creator Oduro, Michael Safo
dc.creator Feigin, Valery L
dc.creator Bako, Abdulaziz T
dc.creator Bärnighausen, Till Winfried
dc.creator Vakili, Omid
dc.creator Sanabria, Juan
dc.creator Vaithinathan, Asokan Govindaraj
dc.creator Bastan, Mohammad-Mahdi
dc.creator Ogundijo, Oluwaseun Adeolu
dc.creator Vahdati, Sanaz
dc.creator Jacob, Louis
dc.creator Ogunsakin, Ropo Ebenezer
dc.creator Iyasu, Assefa N
dc.creator Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful
dc.creator Ullah, Saeed
dc.creator Ojo-Akosile, Tolulope R
dc.creator Islam, Md. Rabiul
dc.creator Ikiroma, Adalia
dc.creator Li, Wei
dc.creator Iftikhar, Pulwasha Maria
dc.creator Lee, Wei-Chen
dc.creator Samy, Abdallah M
dc.creator Roy, Priyanka
dc.creator Runghien, Tilleye
dc.creator Saad, Aly M A
dc.creator Sabet, Cameron John
dc.creator Saeed, Umar
dc.creator Safari, Mehdi
dc.creator Tran, Ngoc Ha
dc.creator Leasher, Janet L
dc.creator Basu, Sanjay
dc.creator Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi
dc.creator Hostiuc, Sorin
dc.creator Sagoe, Dominic
dc.creator Batra, Kavita
dc.creator Sajib, Md Refat Uz Zaman
dc.creator Molavi Vardanjani, Hossein
dc.creator Saleh, Mohamed A
dc.creator Salum, Giovanni A
dc.creator Huynh, Hong-Han
dc.creator Hussain, M. Azhar
dc.creator Tran, Thang Huu
dc.creator Okeke, Sylvester Reuben
dc.creator Okonji, Osaretin Christabel
dc.creator Olagunju, Andrew T
dc.creator Olorukooba, Abdulhakeem Abayomi
dc.creator Olufadewa, Isaac Iyinoluwa
dc.creator Batra, Ravi
dc.creator Oluwafemi, Yinka Doris
dc.creator Moni, Mohammad Ali
dc.creator Omar, Hany A
dc.creator Opejin, Abdulahi
dc.creator Behnoush, Amir Hossein
dc.creator Ostroff, Samuel M
dc.creator Owolabi, Mayowa O
dc.creator Ozair, Ahmad
dc.creator P A, Mahesh Padukudru
dc.creator Panda, Sujogya Kumar
dc.creator Trico, Domenico
dc.creator Pandi-Perumal, Seithikurippu R
dc.creator Parikh, Romil R
dc.creator Park, Sungchul
dc.creator Pashaei, Ava
dc.creator Bemanalizadeh, Maryam
dc.creator Patel, Palak
dc.creator Patil, Shankargouda
dc.creator Pawar, Shrikant
dc.creator Pradhan, Pranil Man Singh
dc.creator Peprah, Emmanuel K
dc.creator Pereira, Gavin
dc.creator Tromans, Samuel Joseph
dc.creator Hushmandi, Kiavash
dc.creator Pradhan, Jalandhar
dc.creator Truyen, Thien Tan Tri Tai
dc.creator Munkhsaikhan, Yanjinlkham
dc.creator Vervoort, Dominique
dc.creator Motappa, Rohith
dc.creator Tumurkhuu, Munkhtuya
dc.creator Huang, Junjie
dc.creator Udoh, Arit
dc.creator Hu, Chengxi
dc.creator Pham, Hoang Nhat
dc.creator Liu, Richard T
dc.creator Moraga, Paula
dc.creator Liu, Gang
dc.creator Lin, Jialing
dc.creator Philip, Anil K
dc.creator Samuel, Vijaya Paul
dc.creator Lim, Stephen S
dc.creator Phillips, Michael R
dc.creator Feizkhah, Alireza
dc.creator Pigeolet, Manon
dc.creator Postma, Maarten J
dc.creator Pourbabaki, Reza
dc.creator Coker, David C
dc.creator Morrison, Shane Douglas
dc.creator Damiani, Giovanni
dc.creator D'Anna, Lucio
dc.creator Daoud, Farah
dc.creator Zielińska, Magdalena
dc.creator Mahmoudi, Elham
dc.creator Maharaj, Sandeep B
dc.creator Darcho, Samuel Demissie
dc.creator Das, Saswati
dc.creator Dash, Nihar Ranjan
dc.creator Haep, Nils
dc.creator Chung, Erin
dc.creator Hajj Ali, Ali
dc.creator Zia, Hafsa
dc.creator Zhumagaliuly, Abzal
dc.creator Zhu, Bin
dc.creator Zhong, Claire Chenwen
dc.creator Manla, Yosef
dc.creator Dashtkoohi, Mohadese
dc.creator Maaty, Doha W S
dc.creator Degenhardt, Louisa
dc.creator Zheng, Ruiyuan
dc.creator Smith, Georgia
dc.creator Zhang, Zhiqiang
dc.creator Zhang, Haijun
dc.creator Lv, Lei
dc.creator Zeariya, Mohammed G M
dc.creator Zare, Iman
dc.creator Lunevicius, Raimundas
dc.creator Zahid, Mondal Hasan
dc.creator Yuan, Chun-Wei
dc.creator Sleet, David A
dc.creator Des Jarlais, Don C
dc.creator Yu, Chuanhua
dc.creator Lucchetti, Giancarlo
dc.creator Younis, Mustafa Z
dc.creator Yiğit, Arzu
dc.creator Singh, Surjit
dc.creator Singh, Jasvinder A
dc.creator Desai, Hardik Dineshbhai
dc.creator Yasufuku, Yuichi
dc.creator Yano, Yuichiro
dc.creator Xu, Suowen
dc.creator Xiao, Hong
dc.creator Wu, Felicia
dc.creator Wu, Chenkai
dc.creator Wolde, Asrat Arja
dc.creator Siddig, Emmanuel Edwar
dc.creator Lansingh, Van Charles
dc.creator Lan, Qing
dc.creator Shuval, Kerem
dc.creator Shool, Sina
dc.creator Kyei, Evans F
dc.creator Kurmi, Om P
dc.creator Wickramasinghe, Nuwan Darshana
dc.creator Rane, Amey
dc.creator Devanbu, Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan
dc.creator Chung, Sheng-Chia
dc.creator Shivarov, Velizar
dc.creator Dewan, Syed Masudur Rahman
dc.creator Shittu, Aminu
dc.creator Shigematsu, Mika
dc.creator Dhama, Kuldeep
dc.creator Dhulipala, Vishal R
dc.creator Kundu, Satyajit
dc.creator Nascimento, Gustavo G
dc.creator Lopukhov, Platon D
dc.creator Naser, Abdallah Y
dc.creator Kumar, Vijay
dc.creator Kumar, Rakesh
dc.creator Kumar, Ashish
dc.creator Kulkarni, Vishnutheertha
dc.creator Rao, Sowmya J
dc.creator Diaz, Luis Antonio Antonio
dc.creator Ding, Delaney D
dc.creator Yon, Dong Keon
dc.creator Rashedi, Sina
dc.creator Do, Thanh Chi
dc.creator Nashwan, Abdulqadir J
dc.creator Kulimbet, Mukhtar
dc.creator Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin
dc.creator Kuddus, Md Abdul
dc.creator Shetty, Premalatha K
dc.creator Shetty, Pavanchand H
dc.creator Do, Thao Huynh Phuong
dc.creator Shetty, Mahabalesh
dc.creator Tat, Nathan Y
dc.creator Krishnamoorthy, Vijay
dc.creator Dongarwar, Deepa
dc.creator Mansouri, Vahid
dc.creator Koren, Gerbrand
dc.creator Kochhar, Sonali
dc.creator Kisa, Adnan
dc.creator D'Oria, Mario
dc.creator Sherchan, Samendra P
dc.creator Kimokoti, Ruth W
dc.creator Chukwu, Isaac Sunday
dc.creator López-Gil, José Francisco
dc.creator Kim, Min Seo
dc.creator Kim, Grace
dc.creator Khosravi, Majid
dc.creator Khosla, Atulya Aman
dc.creator Khormali, Moein
dc.creator Khorgamphar, Mohammad
dc.creator Natto, Zuhair S
dc.creator Dorsey, E. Ray
dc.creator Doshi, Ojas Prakashbhai
dc.creator Khatatbeh, Moawiah Mohammad
dc.creator Douiri, Abdel
dc.creator Shen, Jiabin
dc.creator Khatab, Khaled
dc.creator Sheikh, Aziz
dc.creator Shayan, Maryam
dc.creator Dowou, Robert Kokou
dc.creator Prabhu, Disha
dc.creator Dube, John
dc.creator Choudhari, Sonali Gajanan
dc.creator Sharma, Anupam
dc.creator Manu, Emmanuel
dc.date 2024-12-07T00:00:00Z
dc.date.accessioned 2025-02-25T10:34:47Z
dc.date.available 2025-02-25T10:34:47Z
dc.identifier 993bd912-6197-4557-ab48-bfad8d11ca2f
dc.identifier 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)02246-3
dc.identifier https://avesis.sdu.edu.tr/publication/details/993bd912-6197-4557-ab48-bfad8d11ca2f/oai
dc.identifier.uri http://acikerisim.sdu.edu.tr/xmlui/handle/123456789/100672
dc.description Background: The capacity to anticipate future health issues is important for both policy makers and practitioners in the USA, as such insights can facilitate effective planning, investment, and implementation strategies. Forecasting trends in disease and injury burden is not only crucial for policy makers but also garners substantial interest from the general populace and leads to a better-informed public. Through the integration of new data sources, the refinement of methodologies, and the inclusion of additional causes, we have improved our previous forecasting efforts within the scope of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to produce forecasts at the state and national levels for the USA under various possible scenarios. Methods: We developed a comprehensive framework for forecasting life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HALE), cause-specific mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 359 causes of disease and injury burden from 2022 to 2050 for the USA and all 50 states and Washington, DC. Using the GBD 2021 Future Health Scenarios modelling framework, we forecasted drivers of disease, demographic drivers, risk factors, temperature and particulate matter, mortality and years of life lost (YLL), population, and non-fatal burden. In addition to a reference scenario (representing the most probable future trajectory), we explored various future scenarios and their potential impacts over the next several decades on human health. These alternative scenarios comprised four risk elimination scenarios (including safer environment, improved behavioural and metabolic risks, improved childhood nutrition and vaccination, and a combined scenario) and three USA-specific scenarios based on risk exposure or attributable burden in the best-performing US states (improved high adult BMI and high fasting plasma glucose [FPG], improved smoking, and improved drug use [encompassing opioids, cocaine, amphetamine, and others]). Findings: Life expectancy in the USA is projected to increase from 78·3 years (95% uncertainty interval 78·1–78·5) in 2022 to 79·9 years (79·5–80·2) in 2035, and to 80·4 years (79·8–81·0) in 2050 for all sexes combined. This increase is forecasted to be modest compared with that in other countries around the world, resulting in the USA declining in global rank over the 2022–50 forecasted period among the 204 countries and territories in GBD, from 49th to 66th. There is projected to be a decline in female life expectancy in West Virginia between 1990 and 2050, and little change in Arkansas and Oklahoma. Additionally, after 2023, we projected almost no change in female life expectancy in many states, notably in Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, Iowa, Maine, and Wisconsin. Female HALE is projected to decline between 1990 and 2050 in 20 states and to remain unchanged in three others. Drug use disorders and low back pain are projected to be the leading Level 3 causes of age-standardised DALYs in 2050. The age-standardised DALY rate due to drug use disorders is projected to increase considerably between 2022 and 2050 (19·5% [6·9–34·1]). Our combined risk elimination scenario shows that the USA could gain 3·8 additional years (3·6–4·0) of life expectancy and 4·1 additional years (3·9–4·3) of HALE in 2050 versus the reference scenario. Using our USA-specific scenarios, we forecasted that the USA could gain 0·4 additional years (0·3–0·6) of life expectancy and 0·6 additional years (0·5–0·8) of HALE in 2050 under the improved drug use scenario relative to the reference scenario. Life expectancy and HALE are likewise projected to be 0·4–0·5 years higher in 2050 under the improved adult BMI and FPG and improved smoking scenarios compared with the reference scenario. However, the increases in these scenarios would not substantially improve the USA's global ranking in 2050 (from 66th of 204 in life expectancy in the reference scenario to 63rd–64th in each of the three USA-specific scenarios), indicating that the USA's best-performing states are still lagging behind other countries in their rank throughout the forecasted period. Regardless, an estimated 12·4 million (11·3–13·5) deaths could be averted between 2022 and 2050 if the USA were to follow the combined scenario trajectory rather than the reference scenario. There would also be 1·4 million (0·7–2·2) fewer deaths over the 28-year forecasted period with improved adult BMI and FPG, 2·1 million (1·3–2·9) fewer deaths with improved exposure to smoking, and 1·2 million (0·9–1·5) fewer deaths with lower rates of drug use deaths. Interpretation: Our findings highlight the alarming trajectory of health challenges in the USA, which, if left unaddressed, could lead to a reversal of the health progress made over the past three decades for some US states and a decline in global health standing for all states. The evidence from our alternative scenarios along with other published studies suggests that through collaborative, evidence-based strategies, there are opportunities to change the trajectory of health outcomes in the USA, such as by investing in scientific innovation, health-care access, preventive health care, risk exposure reduction, and education. Our forecasts clearly show that the time to act is now, as the future of the country's health and wellbeing—as well as its prosperity and leadership position in science and innovation—are at stake. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
dc.language eng
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.title Burden of disease scenarios by state in the USA, 2022–50: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article


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